8/19/2021

Unemployment claims came in better than expected at 348K with the expectations of 362K, and last week's numbers were 377K. So from a jobs standpoint, the US looks strong, and this has led the Fed to start eyeing the potential tapering of bond assets by the end of this year. A major concern for most investors is still the looming fear of long term inflation coming in higher than expected by year end, and this has contributed to the sell off in recent days.

Our outlook

This is a very small pullback in the market compared to what analysts are fearing will happen, but I also think that this level is a strong one. Usually, the market starts running out of steam in September, and that is when you see larger pullbacks. I'm not saying that won't happen in August, but I do think that we still have some room to run in the meantime. I'm writing this a few minutes before open, so the market is hardly moving compared to when the trading day starts, but I do think that this level is worth considering. If the market pushes lower, we might not see any kind of bounce until $4271.

Trade Setups

SPX500

SPX500 on the1D chart is clinging to a rising trend line in the premarket which is also the index's 50-day moving average. This could serve as a strong level of support and take price back up to test the highs. If price crosses under this level, support lies around $4271.

NAS100

NAS100 is also hitting its 50 DMA and seemingly bouncing up from the lows on the 1D chart. A triple top at the $15,100s zone will be a tough level to break, but the index could come up to test it once more should price maintain above this moving average.