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July 8, 2021

US Jobs Growth Slows- What You Should Know

Frank Cabibi

7/8/2021

US unemployment claims rose higher than expectations which were 345K, last week's numbers were 371K, and today's numbers were 373K.
Previous: 371K
Forecast: 345K
Actual: 373K

This news says a couple things about the US economy. And to refer to points made in last week's article on US unemployment, we can see that the labor force has increased. So, naturally more people are looking for jobs, and businesses are still struggling to hire. It's almost like we have to contradicting factors here which might be clearer in the big picture, but keeping track of this data on a week-to-week can be confusing sometimes.

Our outlook

Recent jobs numbers looks bad in the short term, but the fact that more people are entering the work force and businesses are still aggressively trying to hire is a good sign in the long term. In my opinion, it's like a great transition from civilians living on unemployment to them now out looking for job opportunities. People who were used to working at home are now trying to find opportunities remotely, and for better or worse, businesses will have to adjust to that. So, it is a very weird time in the US and the world, but this mixed sentiment seems like it's all part of a new era of employment, technology in the workplace, and business's adjustment to the new sentiment. In my opinion, this is not really a time to trade (intraday), but it is a time to look to invest because there will be a lot of noise in the short term and this type of environment calls for big picture plays.

Trade Setups

SPX500

US equities seeing a huge market sell off in the premarket as price is already down 1.5% on the day. Price crossed under support and could be heading lower to $4269. Jobless claims rose this week as more people enter the work force. These dips look like good opportunities to find some potential long trades, however, significant risk is involved since these sell offs happen very quickly and harshly.

NAS100

NAS100 has a similar setup on the 4H. Two hard rejections from the lows from the two recent candles suggest a move higher. A close around this price would be a good sign for tech bulls, but a dip lower means support would be hit around $14,440.

DXY

The dollar index is moving synchronously with the market and is down close to 0.50% on the day. Price could come test a supportive trend line on the 4H, but if it dips, price would probably test additional support around $91.441.

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