Look out traders! On Thursday the 10th of June, the US will be printing their CPI data so here's what to expect...
The USD Consumer Price Index (CPI) report measures the change in the average price basket of goods and services by consumers, which can be anything from food, transportation and medical care.
The US also publishes a "Core" CPI, which removes volatile items such as food and energy prices.
Changes in the CPI are used to assess price changes associated with living in the country. It is one of the most used statistics to identify periods of inflation or deflation.
Quick Summary of Previous Report:
CPI m/m = 0.8% vs 0.2% expected
Core CPI m/m = 0.9% vs 0.3% expected
CPI y/y = 4.2% vs 3.6% expected
Core CPI y/y = 3.0% vs 2.3% expected
Consumer prices jumped by 0.8% from March and a massive 4.2% from a year ago in April, the fastest annualised increase since September 2008. This mostly came from semiconductor shortages, business re-openings, and other supply constraints that boosted the prices of used cars (up 10%) and other vital goods.
The Fed had expected price increases, but the surprisingly high numbers had inspired talks of tapering for the Fed and boosted the US dollar higher.
What's Expected Now:
CPI m/m = 0.5% vs 0.8% previous
Core CPI m/m = 0.6% vs 0.9% previous
CPI y/y = 4.7% vs 4.2% previous
Core CPI y/y = 3.2% vs 3.0% previous
Analysts are expecting price increases to slow down from 0.8% to 0.5%, with core prices also easing from 0.9% to 0.6%. However, leading indicators support faster price increases:
Manufacturing PMI noted that supply chain disruptions and backlogs have led to the “fastest rises in input rises” on record and that manufacturers are passing it on “at an unprecedented rate".
Impact on USD/JPY:
If the data comes out better than expected, we will likely see price continue this ascending channel trend and make a move to the upside, bouncing off the channel's bottom. However, if we see the report come out worse than expected, so below the predicted figures, it is likely we will see price break this trend and make a move to the downside.
A1 Edgefinder
AI- Generated Trading Setups
AI-generated bullish/bearish bias setups on forex currencies, gold, & indices.
Today's economic figures came out in US and Canada. GDP came in higher than expected in Canada while the price of goods purchased by consumers was lower than last month. Here are some pullback ideas for USD and CAD from GDP and PCE numbers. EdgeFinder Analysis NAS100 is a bullish reading on the EdgeFinder still. […]
This week has brought more inflation data with it regarding the USD's PCE and PMI numbers. Powell is also set to speak this Friday about monetary policy going forward. The RBNZ will also release their latest interest rate news tomorrow with expectations of an unchanged rate at 5.5%. EdgeFinder Analysis GBPUSD is a bullish bias […]
This week is a big PMI week for Europe, UK and US. Additional inflationary metrics will add to the overall sentiment of these countries' monetary policies going forward. Here are some setups for the coming week on these currencies. EdgeFinder Analysis GBPCAD is now a +7 on the EdgeFinder as we wait for CPI news […]
DISCLAIMER: All comments made by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC are for educational and informational purposes only. All comments should not be construed as investment advice regarding the purchase or sale of any securities or financial instrument of any kind. Please consult with your financial adviser before making an investment decision regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC assumes no responsibility for your trading and investment results. All information on any of the platforms utilized by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC, its employees, representatives, and affiliated individuals may have a position or effect transactions in the securities and financial instruments herein and or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies. Trading of any type involves very high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC, its subsidiaries and all affiliated individuals assume no responsibility for your trading and investment result. Read our full disclaimer here
There is a significant degree of risk involved in trading securities. With respect to foreign exchange trading, there is considerable risk exposure, including but not limited to, leverage, creditworthiness, limited regulatory protection and market volatility that may substantially affect the price, or liquidity of a currency or currency pair. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.