A1 Trading Company

Ticker tape by TradingView

June 9, 2021

10/06 USD CPI: What To Expect

Bart Kurek

Look out traders! On Thursday the 10th of June, the US will be printing their CPI data so here's what to expect...

The USD Consumer Price Index (CPI) report measures the change in the average price basket of goods and services by consumers, which can be anything from food, transportation and medical care.

The US also publishes a "Core" CPI, which removes volatile items such as food and energy prices.

Changes in the CPI are used to assess price changes associated with living in the country. It is one of the most used statistics to identify periods of inflation or deflation.

Quick Summary of Previous Report:

  • CPI m/m = 0.8% vs 0.2% expected
  • Core CPI m/m = 0.9% vs 0.3% expected
  • CPI y/y = 4.2% vs 3.6% expected
  • Core CPI y/y = 3.0% vs 2.3% expected

Consumer prices jumped by 0.8% from March and a massive 4.2% from a year ago in April, the fastest annualised increase since September 2008. This mostly came from semiconductor shortages, business re-openings, and other supply constraints that boosted the prices of used cars (up 10%) and other vital goods.

The Fed had expected price increases, but the surprisingly high numbers had inspired talks of tapering for the Fed and boosted the US dollar higher.

What's Expected Now:

  • CPI m/m = 0.5% vs 0.8% previous
  • Core CPI m/m = 0.6% vs 0.9% previous
  • CPI y/y = 4.7% vs 4.2% previous
  • Core CPI y/y = 3.2% vs 3.0% previous

Analysts are expecting price increases to slow down from 0.8% to 0.5%, with core prices also easing from 0.9% to 0.6%. However, leading indicators support faster price increases:

Manufacturing PMI noted that supply chain disruptions and backlogs have led to the “fastest rises in input rises” on record and that manufacturers are passing it on “at an unprecedented rate".

Impact on USD/JPY:

If the data comes out better than expected, we will likely see price continue this ascending channel trend and make a move to the upside, bouncing off the channel's bottom. However, if we see the report come out worse than expected, so below the predicted figures, it is likely we will see price break this trend and make a move to the downside.

A1 Edgefinder

#1 Market Scanner Tool
Take 10% off using code "READER"
GET ACCESS NOW
Want to See Our Trades?

Join The VIP Community!

Our entries, exits & analysis
Live Webinar Coaching
Trading Chatrooms
Strategy Library 
Exclusive Trading Guides
Use Code "READER" for 10% OFF!
JOIN NOWJoin FREE Discord
Listen to More Episodes
Even More Bullish USD News

This morning at 8:30 am Eastern Time, the United States’ Bureau of Economic Analysis released even more bullish USD news. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which measures changes in prices for consumers (excluding volatile food and energy prices), rose more than expected month-over-month. A 0.5% increase was expected for August, with 0.6% […]

Read More
Historic Peril for the Pound

A strange series of events recently sent the United Kingdom’s Pound Sterling tumbling to historic lows. Just weeks after the death of Queen Elizabeth II (a head of state who was uniquely well-liked among the UK’s population by contemporary standards) Kwasi Kwarteng, Britain’s new chancellor in recently appointed Prime Minister Liz Truss’ administration, issued a […]

Read More
Get Ready for the Bear Market

Last week’s selloff was brutal for investors in the US stock market: the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at its lowest level since late 2020, falling to 29590.41, losing 1.6% on Friday alone. With the S&P 500 currently down a whopping 23% from January’s highs this year, and other indexes close behind percentagewise, stock market […]

Read More
DISCLAIMER: All comments made by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC are for educational and informational purposes only. All comments should not be construed as investment advice regarding the purchase or sale of any securities or financial instrument of any kind. Please consult with your financial adviser before making an investment decision regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC assumes no responsibility for your trading and investment results. All information on any of the platforms utilized by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC, its employees, representatives, and affiliated individuals may have a position or effect transactions in the securities and financial instruments herein and or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies. Trading of any type involves very high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC, its subsidiaries and all affiliated individuals assume no responsibility for your trading and investment result. Read our full disclaimer here
Home
Edgefinder
VIP
Menu
homesmartphonelaptopmenu linkedin facebook pinterest youtube rss twitter instagram facebook-blank rss-blank linkedin-blank pinterest youtube twitter instagram