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October 20, 2022

USD Falling on the Philly Fed News

Michael J. Donoghue
USD Falling on the Philly Fed News

This morning, at 8:30 am Eastern Time, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released an unfortunate batch of news for the US economy. The Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey, otherwise known as the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, which surveys over 200 Philadelphia manufacturers on a monthly basis, indicated worsening business conditions this month. While a score of -5 was anticipated, and would have already been a pessimistic indication, the real number was a bleaker -8.7. Considering that American manufacturing is a crucial component of US exports, these disappointing conditions ostensibly highlight the toll that a strong US Dollar is taking on trade, which carries negative implications for US GDP growth, or the lack thereof. With USD falling on the Philly Fed News today, monetary tightening-induced recession fears continue to haunt financial markets.

End of the Road for USD?

While the USD bullish run cannot last forever, a reversal currently seems unlikely anytime soon. High core inflation and hot labor markets are still incentivizing the Federal Reserve to continue their aggressive rate hike strategy, which they show little sign of stopping, regardless of UN criticism. Those bullish on USD may want to watch bearish movements like these for potential trade setups, which could yield potential discounted opportunities for going long on the Greenback.  

Three Potential Pairs to Trade

According to the A1 EdgeFinder’s market analysis, the following pairs rank favorably for those interested in going long on USD. They are listed below with their respective ratings, signals/biases, and corresponding charts.

1) USD/CHF (Earns a Score of 4, or a ‘Buy’ Signal)

USD Falling on the Philly Fed News
USD Falling on the Philly Fed News

2) EUR/USD (Earns a Score of -5, or a ‘Sell’ Signal)

USD Falling on the Philly Fed News
USD Falling on the Philly Fed News

3) AUD/USD (Earns a Score of -4, or ‘Sell’ Signal)

USD Falling on the Philly Fed News
USD Falling on the Philly Fed News

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