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June 3, 2021

04/06 USD NFP: What To Expect

Bart Kurek

Look out traders! On Friday the 4th of June, the US will be printing their monthly non-farm employment report so here's what to expect...

Quick Summary of Previous Report:

  • April NFP printed at 266k jobs vs 960k consensus
  • Unemployment rate increased from 6.0% to 6.1%
  • Average Hourly Earnings at 0.7% vs 0.0% consensus

After impressive NFP reports over the past couple of months, the April report was absolutely devastating! Analysts had expected to see almost a million jobs gained for the month, but the reading only printed a 266k increase; a quarter of what analysts expected. This also pushed the unemployment figure up from 6.0% to 6.1% rather than down to the projected 5.8%.

What's Expected Now:

  • May NFP to print at 645k
  • Unemployment rate to improve from 6.1% to 5.9%
  • Average Hourly Earnings to show 0.2% uptick

Analysts are expecting for a decent rise in hiring, forecasting a 645k increase in employment for May. This could be enough to bring the unemployment rate down again to 5.9%. Wage growth could slow down, as the average hourly earnings figure is slated to show a 0.2% uptick after the earlier 0.7% gain.

Although the ISM Manufacturing PMI for May beat expectations, the jobs component fell from 55.1 to 50.9 to reflect a slower pace of hiring gains in the industry. Weekly jobless claims throughout the month have been falling steadily, so the monthly jobs figure may not be too bad.

Another NFP miss may put more downside pressure on the USD since this would likely push back the FED's timeline to scale back stimulus.

Impact on GBP/USD:

It's likely this event will be the catalyst for the next major move in this market. Price is currently just below the recent highs at 1.422 and if the USD does in fact come out strong as a result of the NFP event, it's likely we will see the USD strength overpower the GBP and possibly make a move back down to the previous resistance, now new support at 1.40, at around the channel's bottom.

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