9/29/2021

Bond yields jumped the highest point in the past 3 months at 1.51% as the dollar rose across the board yesterday and today. Equities markets in the US took a dip yesterday after looking like it had a promising recovery. The DXY is up over half a percent this morning and the stock market is up .6%.

Our outlook

The prolonged wait on tapering and raising interest rates has the market and USD in a frenzy and will continue to be volatile until a decision is made. The more investors try to figure out what's going on, the worse this will get, and we may some more heavy market swings. I think that the dollar is going to be the thing investors will flock to in this time of great uncertainty, as we have already seen so far. But, I think that the dollar has the potential to see more highs as investors try to price in a raise in interest rates while stocks struggle. Now, it seems best to start looking for risk-off trade setups and longing USD.

Trade Setups

USDJPY

USDJPY just broke every level of resistance in the way this year and is currently at its highest point in 2021. A close above this level would be another bullish sign for the pair which suggests that price will use this level as new support.

USDCHF

USDCHF on the 1D chart up nearly half a percent and testing the recent highs of .93329. Testing resistance at .93547 seems likely for the pair within the next few days. If price comes back down, there is clean support around .92368.

USDCAD

USDCAD catches support on the 50 DMA on the 1D chart and looks to be coming up to resistance at the rising long term trend line. A series of higher lows suggest a continued move higher regardless of the potential head and shoulders pattern that formed on this timeframe. Support at 1.26697.