|CB Consumer Confidence||129.9||123.9||128.9|
|Advanced GDP q/q||-||8.5%||6.4%|
|Core PCE Price Index m/m||-||0.6%||0.5%|
CB Consumer Confidence basically measures whether we will see more consumer spending in the US. If actual is greater than forecast, it's good. The FOMC statement expectations are mixed with the little data we have, but investors are eyeing statements on economic growth because that will help us understand whether they will start to taper sooner or not. Advanced GDP q/q is just the first of the 3 GDPs to be introduced, so it might have the biggest influence on economic sentiment. The forecast is much higher than the previous number so analysts are expecting lots of growth this quarter. Core PCE Price Index m/m is the month to month change in price of goods consumers purchase excluding necessities. Unemployment claims is a big factor going into Thursday's report as we have missed expectations for several weeks.
I don't think the Fed will go without discussing tapering, and it would most likely get addressed in the Q&A. I also don't think that they will announce when they plan to taper, but when they do, they'll let us know well beforehand. Right now, we have a lot of concerns going on in the market including the delta variant, so that is still at the forefront of everyone's mind. If jobs numbers miss again, and the housing market cools off, we could start seeing some concern which could start incentivizing investors to move their money to the USD and out of stocks.
UC on the 4H chart keeps testing support and formed three bottoms leaving long wicks to reject the lows. This area of consolidation might stay until the Fed meeting tomorrow. Price is nearing a rising trend line as well.
GU popped today on the positive Brexit news as price breaks above resistance and is heading for further resistance at 1.39000. The break out of its 4H falling trend line is a bullish sign for the pair.
UJ on the 4H timeframe continues to fall and is touching a support zone near a previous bottom. A lower low and high suggests a move lower under 109.000, but the catalyst of that move will depend on this week's big news.
9/17/2021 Stocks are down -0.58% this morning after coming down to test a significant level of support once again. While stocks fall, the dollar rises in the anticipation of sooner-than-expected tapering by the Fed along with a hike in interest rates starting in 2022. Our outlook Other than September being one of the worst months […]
9/16/2021 The Euro-Dollar pair is down over 0.5% today after several days in the red. Today's speech by EU president Lagarde mentioned how the economic recovery had come quicker than expected six months ago. This was praised by the prompt vaccine distribution so citizens could get back to work. Across the pond, the US just […]
9/14/2021 This morning's report on CPI m/m and core CPI m/m came in at a lower percentage than expected which resulted in a falling dollar pre-New York session. The USD is now volatile under the uncertainty of potential tapering and rising rates while the equities market seems to be rising because of this. Our outlook […]
9/13/2021 Big money has been moving out of Australia's currency for nearly a month now which has been the biggest drop in long contracts in this amount of time year-to-date. Australia's dollar index (AXY) is up 0.06% at 73.61 on the day after rebounding from the lows around 71.19. Our outlook Australia's economy has surprised […]