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July 5, 2021

The Week Ahead: PMI, FOMC & Employment

Bart Kurek

Let's look at the news event's we've got lining up this week...

(USD) ISM Services PMI

The ISM (Institute for Supply Management) Services PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) measures the level of a diffusion index, based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry. It is a leading indicator of economic health; businesses react quickly to market conditions and their purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.

Analysts are expecting the services PMI to come out at 63.9, so just 0.01 less than the previous reading. It's not a major difference, and still above the 50.0 threshold; however this reading does indicate contraction and if the report comes out as expected, could see slight bearishness for the USD. However, I'm not expecting much volatility to come out from this report.

(USD) FOMC Meeting Minutes

The June Fed meeting seemed a lot more hawkish than expected, as inflation estimates were upgraded and the dot plot forecast of rates suggested a potentially earlier rate hike. Fed Chair Powell quickly downplayed the pickup in price pressures during his speech the next day, suggesting that there is still a divide amongst FOMC members.

The transcript of their meeting would contain these internal discussions, which should provide more insight on how most policymakers are leaning.

Clearly the rush in the US isn't over and the release of the FOMC minutes might still spark big USD moves.

(CAD) Employment Change

After consecutive employment data disappointments, Canada is projected to report a comeback of around 40k in hiring in June, following a -68k headline last month. This should be just enough to bring the unemployment rate down from 8.2% to 8.1%.

However, if the results come out worse than expected, another bad figure might lead CAD traders to worry that The BoC tapered way too soon or that it would take much longer before they tighten policy.

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