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June 14, 2021

The Week Ahead: FOMC, GDP, Retail Sales & Unemployment

Bart Kurek

Let's look at the news event's we've got lining up this week...

(USD) Retail Sales

The USD Retail Sales Report is set to Tuesday which shows the total value of sales at a retail level. Consumer spending accounts for a majority of economic activity, and therefore when citizens spend, it is a sign that people have jobs, people are making money, and people are able to spend money for whatever it is they want.

Analysts expect to see a 0.6% decline in the USD Retail Sales compared to the previous month at 0.0%. The Core reading is set to rebound by 0.4% after the previous reading at -0.8%. This report will likely paint a mixed picture of consumer spending, so I suggest looking at the data once released before making any trading decisions.

(USD) FOMC Statement

No actual changes to the interest rates or bond purchases are expected in this FOMC statement. The updated estimates for growth and inflation are due, which could influence future policy action expectations. Price pressures have been more substantial, as indicated by the core PCE price index and CPI reading for May.

Any hints that policymakers are considering tapering asset purchases will have a strong impact on USD movements.

(NZD) GDP q/q

A Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report is a measure of the size and health of a country's economy over a period of time. The figure sums up the country's performance in terms of trade, consumer activity, government spending and investment during a particular period.

For the first quarter of 2021, the New Zealand economy is expected to have grown by 0.5, much greater than the 1.0% contraction in Q4 2020. A stronger than expected GDP reading could boost hopes that the RBNZ could unwind stimulus and hike interest rates sooner than later.

(AUD) Unemployment

The Employment Change report is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. The number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labour-market conditions.

Job creation is expected to recover by 30.5k in May after the previous month where we saw job losses of 30.6k. This should be enough to keep the unemployment rate steady at 5.5%. The end of the government's JobSeeker stimulus program, which ended earlier this year, may still weigh the labour market.

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