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November 15, 2021

The Week Ahead: Monetary Policy, Retail Sales & CPI

Bart Kurek

Let's look at the news event's we've got lining up this week...

(AUD) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

During the previous rate decision, the RBA kept their interest rates on hold as expected. However, the RBA has removed its yield curve control target on the April 2024 government bond since it is "losing credibility". The transcript during this event should provide more insight on when policymakers think their first tightening move may happen.

(USD) Retail Sales

The USD Retail Sales Report is set for Tuesday which shows the total value of sales at a retail level. Consumer spending accounts for a majority of economic activity, and therefore when citizens spend, it is a sign that people have jobs, people are making money, and people are able to spend money for whatever it is they want.

A pickup in consumer spending is eyed for October, with the headline figure expected to rise from 0.7% to 1.2% and the core reading to also pick up from 0.8% to 1.0%. These increases were likely caused by the rebound in auto sales, on top of the improvement in the labour market situation.

(GBP) CPI

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report measures the change in the average price basket of goods and services by consumers, which can be anything from food, transportation and medical care. Changes in the CPI are used to assess price changes associated with living in the country. It is one of the most used statistics to identify periods of inflation or deflation.

Another surge in UK inflation is eyed, with the headline figure expected to climb from 3.1% to 3.8%. This may be enough to spark BoE rate hike bets once again, as stagflation remains a persistent threat to the UK economy.

(CAD) CPI

The BoC is also releasing its inflation figures this week as well as related indicators of price pressures. The headline CPI report doesn't currently have a forecast, but later in the week keep an eye on this event. Stronger than expected results could fuel monetary policy tightening expectations from the BoC.

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