A1 Trading Company

Ticker tape by TradingView

May 17, 2021

The Week Ahead: CPI, Employment, Retail Sales & PMI

Bart Kurek

Let's look at the news event's we've got lining up this week...

(GBP) CPI

The GBP Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is releasing on Wednesday, which measures the change in the average price basket of goods and services by consumers, which can be anything from food, transportation and medical care. Changes in the CPI are used to assess price changes associated with living in the country. It is one of the most used statistics to identify periods of inflation or deflation.

Analysts are expecting a strong improvement from 0.7% to 1.4% for the economies annual CPI reading. This could be enough to boost BoE tightening speculations. We could see huge strength in the Pound if we see the data come out like so, and we could see the next high formed in GBPUSD, breaking past the recent 1.417 high.

(AUD) Employment Report

The AUD Employment Report is set to release on Thursday which shows the change in the number of employed people during the previous month. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. The number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labour-market conditions.

We are expecting to see employment gains of 20.3k, which is significantly lower than the previous 70.7k, and the unemployment to continue staying at 5.6%. These numbers are not very notable, and in fact, do not show massive progress in the Australian economy; therefore some weakness may be shown on Thursday. We could also see some consolidation as these numbers are not notable at all.

(AUD + GBP) Retail Sales

The AUD and GBP Retail Sales Report are set to release on Friday which shows the total value of sales at a retail level. Like we mentioned earlier, consumer spending accounts for a majority of economic activity, and therefore when citizens spend, it is a sign that people have jobs, people are making money, and people are able to spend money for whatever it is they want.

Analysts expect to see a 0.5% increase to the AUD Retail Sales compared to the previous month at 1.3%. This shows regression, and the economy is doing worse instead of making progress. If the data comes out at so, expect weakness to the AUD. On the other hand, analysts expect to see a 4.5% increase to the GBP Retail Sales compared to the previous month at 5.4%. This also shows regression to the economy; however, as these numbers are still pretty high, we may not see as much weakness as the GBP as I expect to for the AUD.

(EUR) PMI

The German Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data is releasing on Friday and it is an index of the prevailing direction of economic trends in the manufacturing and service sectors. It consists of a diffusion index, which essentially summarises market conditions viewed by purchasing managers if they are expanding, staying the same or contracting. The PMI aims to provide information about current and future business conditions to company decision-makers, analysts, and investors.

The headline PMI is a number from 0 to 100. A PMI above 50 represents an expansion when compared with the previous month. A reading below 50 represents a contraction, and a reading at 50 indicates no change compared to the previous month. The further away from 50, the greater the level of change.

Services PMI is expected to come out at 52.0, which is higher than the previous month and above 50.0, which shows expansion and is really good for the economy. Manufacturing PMI on the other hand is expected to decrease from 66.2 to 66.0, which is a tiny change; however, as it is still in expansion, this figure may not cause as much volatility as the Services PMI is expected to.

A1 Edgefinder

#1 Market Scanner Tool
Take 10% off using code "READER"
GET ACCESS NOW
Want to See Our Trades?

Join The VIP Community!

Our entries, exits & analysis
Live Webinar Coaching
Trading Chatrooms
Strategy Library 
Exclusive Trading Guides
Use Code "READER" for 10% OFF!
JOIN NOWJoin FREE Discord
Listen to More Episodes
Even More Bullish USD News

This morning at 8:30 am Eastern Time, the United States’ Bureau of Economic Analysis released even more bullish USD news. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which measures changes in prices for consumers (excluding volatile food and energy prices), rose more than expected month-over-month. A 0.5% increase was expected for August, with 0.6% […]

Read More
Historic Peril for the Pound

A strange series of events recently sent the United Kingdom’s Pound Sterling tumbling to historic lows. Just weeks after the death of Queen Elizabeth II (a head of state who was uniquely well-liked among the UK’s population by contemporary standards) Kwasi Kwarteng, Britain’s new chancellor in recently appointed Prime Minister Liz Truss’ administration, issued a […]

Read More
Get Ready for the Bear Market

Last week’s selloff was brutal for investors in the US stock market: the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at its lowest level since late 2020, falling to 29590.41, losing 1.6% on Friday alone. With the S&P 500 currently down a whopping 23% from January’s highs this year, and other indexes close behind percentagewise, stock market […]

Read More
DISCLAIMER: All comments made by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC are for educational and informational purposes only. All comments should not be construed as investment advice regarding the purchase or sale of any securities or financial instrument of any kind. Please consult with your financial adviser before making an investment decision regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC assumes no responsibility for your trading and investment results. All information on any of the platforms utilized by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC, its employees, representatives, and affiliated individuals may have a position or effect transactions in the securities and financial instruments herein and or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies. Trading of any type involves very high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC, its subsidiaries and all affiliated individuals assume no responsibility for your trading and investment result. Read our full disclaimer here
Home
Edgefinder
VIP
Menu
homesmartphonelaptopmenu linkedin facebook pinterest youtube rss twitter instagram facebook-blank rss-blank linkedin-blank pinterest youtube twitter instagram