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August 16, 2021

The Week Ahead: All Eyes On The RBNZ

Bart Kurek

Let's look at the news event's we've got lining up this week...

(USD) Retail Sales

The USD Retail Sales Report is set for Tuesday which shows the total value of sales at a retail level. Consumer spending accounts for a majority of economic activity, and therefore when citizens spend, it is a sign that people have jobs, people are making money, and people are able to spend money for whatever it is they want.

Analysts expect to see a 0.2% decline in the USD Retail Sales compared to the previous month at 0.6%. The Core reading is expected at a minor 0.2% increase after the previous reading at 1.3%. This report will likely paint a mixed picture of consumer spending, so I suggest looking at the data once released before making any trading decisions.

(NZD) Monetary Policy Statement

This week, all eyes are on the RBNZ as the central bank is widely expected to hike rates from 0.25% to 0.50%. These hawkish expectations are supported by stronger than expected quarterly inflation and employment figures, as New Zealand has been weathering the pandemic far better than any of its peers. Keep in mind that the RBNZ has already committed to scaling back its easing program in July, suggesting that policymakers are keen on keeping price pressures in check.

(USD) FOMC Meeting Minutes

This release should shed more light on whether policymakers are shifting to a more optimistic stance or not. In their latest statement, the Fed refrained from giving a timeline for tapering asset purchases, citing that they need to see "substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals” before making adjustments".

(AUD) Employment Change

The Employment Change report is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. The number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labour-market conditions.

Job creation is expected to decline by 46k in July after the previous month where we saw job creation of 29.1k. This might be enough to move the unemployment rate up to 5.0%.

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