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July 19, 2021

The Week Ahead: PMI & Monetary Policies

Bart Kurek

Let's look at the news event's we've got lining up this week...

(AUD) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

The RBA did not make any changes to interest rates in the latest policy decision. Policymakers extended its bond-buying program for a couple of months which reducing the amount from A$5B to A$4B per week. The transcript of their meeting should provide more insight on why they decided to make these adjustments and whether or not they’re considering tightening anytime soon.

(EUR) Monetary Policy Statement

No policy changes are expected from the ECB, however many are hoping that the Chairperson Lagarde will update their forward guidance on rates. Particularly, expectations are for the ECB to commit to keep negative rates in place for longer, as their economy is struggling to deal with the pandemic.

Lagarde may also clarify the end of the PEPP (pandemic emergency purchase programme) next year could be followed by regular asset purchases, which would basically be another round of quantitative easing.

(EUR) Eurozone PMI

We're expecting to see another round of declines for manufacturing PMI's in the eurozone while the services sector could be showing improvements.

France could print a dip in its July flash manufacturing PMI from 59.0 to 58.1 and an increase from 57.8 to 58.7 for its services PMI.

Germany could see its manufacturing PMI dip from 65.1 to 64.7 and its services PMI climb from 57.5 to 59.4.

This should be enough to bring the region’s flash manufacturing PMI down from 63.4 to 62.6 and the flash services PMI up from 58.3 to 59.4 this month.

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