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June 21, 2021

The Week Ahead: FED, PMI & MPC

Bart Kurek

Let's look at the news event's we've got lining up this week...

(USD) Fed Chair Powell Testifies

After last week's crazy moves spurred by the FOMC announcement, USD traders are likely very interested in what remarks the main man himself has to say.

Powell is scheduled to discuss the Fed’s emergency lending programs and current policies before the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis.

Look out for any hints given on when the central banks might reduce their stimulus efforts.

PMI

The German Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data is releasing on Wednesday, and it is an index of the prevailing direction of economic trends in the manufacturing and service sectors.

It consists of a diffusion index, which essentially summarises market conditions viewed by purchasing managers if they expand, staying the same or contract.

The PMI aims to provide information about current and future business conditions to company decision-makers, analysts, and investors.

The headline PMI is a number from 0 to 100. A PMI above 50 represents an expansion when compared with the previous month. A reading below 50 represents a contraction, and a reading at 50 indicates no change compared to the previous month. The further away from 50, the greater the level of change.

(EUR) PMI

Germany is expected to decline from 64.4 to 63.0 in its manufacturing PMI, indicating a slower pace of industry growth. On the other hand, analysts are expecting an incline from 52.8 to 55.4 in its services PMI.

This should bring the region's flash manufacturing PMI down from 63.1 to 62.0 and the flash services PMI up from 55.2 to 57.6.

(USD) PMI

The US is also printing their PMI report, and analysts expect the manufacturing data to show a dip from 62.1 to 61.5, and the services industry will decline from 70.4 to 70.0.

(GBP) Monetary Policy Summary

No actual interest rate changes or asset purchases adjustments are expected in this summary, but any shift in bias among the MPC members will cause volatility in GBP markets.

Previously, we had one committee member Haldane who was already voting to reduce the total size of asset purchases in an earlier meeting, and the pressure could be mounting for other policymakers to consider trimming stimulus.

Take note, however, that there is no pressure or update on economic forecasts this time. This suggests that the central bank might wait until the next meeting in August before possibly announcing significant changes.

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