9/14/2021
This morning's report on CPI m/m and core CPI m/m came in at a lower percentage than expected which resulted in a falling dollar pre-New York session. The USD is now volatile under the uncertainty of potential tapering and rising rates while the equities market seems to be rising because of this.
Our outlook
This news looks to be better for the market, although I still feel like anything suggesting a closer indication to tapering also means that we're getting closer to a rise in interest rates. That would be strong for the USD and bad for equities. But investors might be taking this as a recovery in the economy as inflation slows, so this week could be good for the stock market as long as the end of the week's jobs claims come in good as well.
Trade Setups
SPX500
US equities look like they're able to catch support as the SPX500 finds support on the 200 SMA on the 4H chart. Lower inflation data could be indicating that the market will find some momentum to the upside. However, price has to break above that previous top to get that extra for it to look truly bullish in my opinion. We are looking at a series of higher highs and lower lows which could mean the SPX is in a wedge for the time being.
NAS100
Tech stocks look like they're in the same boat as the NAS100 is starting to form a wedge as well. Resistance lies at $15,543 while the index retraces on a lower high. We could be seeing mixed movement in both indices today as investors try to decide where the market should go.
The dollar flew higher last week as a result of resilient economic news along with a higher PCE than expected. Now the DXY has reached a decision point in price action. This week's NFP will help determine the sentiment around the potential June rate hike. Here is what we are looking at: EdgeFinder Analysis USDCAD […]
Considerably dovish news from central banks in the US and New Zealand has caused a major stir in the markets. Governor Orr and Vice Chairman Powell both released some reassuring news for the economy in the long term. But what does this mean for USD and NZD? EdgeFinder Analysis GBPNZD is a pair that should […]
As we trade into a broad news week covering the economic status of multiple countries, there are several scenarios we should consider. Although it is impossible to predict the future, we can at least prepare for the news events set to come this week for kiwi, dollar and the pound. EdgeFinder Analysis GBPJPY still maintains […]
