9/14/2021

This morning's report on CPI m/m and core CPI m/m came in at a lower percentage than expected which resulted in a falling dollar pre-New York session. The USD is now volatile under the uncertainty of potential tapering and rising rates while the equities market seems to be rising because of this.

Our outlook

This news looks to be better for the market, although I still feel like anything suggesting a closer indication to tapering also means that we're getting closer to a rise in interest rates. That would be strong for the USD and bad for equities. But investors might be taking this as a recovery in the economy as inflation slows, so this week could be good for the stock market as long as the end of the week's jobs claims come in good as well.

Trade Setups

SPX500

US equities look like they're able to catch support as the SPX500 finds support on the 200 SMA on the 4H chart. Lower inflation data could be indicating that the market will find some momentum to the upside. However, price has to break above that previous top to get that extra for it to look truly bullish in my opinion. We are looking at a series of higher highs and lower lows which could mean the SPX is in a wedge for the time being.

NAS100

Tech stocks look like they're in the same boat as the NAS100 is starting to form a wedge as well. Resistance lies at $15,543 while the index retraces on a lower high. We could be seeing mixed movement in both indices today as investors try to decide where the market should go.