What Today's Jobs Data Tells Us About Tomorrow's NFP News
Bonds had a .03% drop in yield rates this morning to under 1.46% on good jobs data. Unemployment claims beat expectations by 24K less claims than forecasted which was 388K. The past few weeks had been over 400K claims, so the latest numbers under the 400K threshold is a great sign for the economy and the stock market. However, the dollar looks mixed from the good economic news and falling bond yields. NFP and unemployment data comes out tomorrow morning, and investors are anticipating some volatility in the wake of news as well.
If bond yields keep falling, it would probably look increasingly bearish for the dollar. However, yields are oscillating between the low 1.45s and 1.70s% while the the dollar index has moved 0.29% on the day. Mixed sentiment might be bearish for the dollar, but it looks like the dollar wants to climb with the stock market. Today's numbers give us a hint that we will probably see a beat in expectations in the US's unemployment numbers. As for NFP, I am not sure we will beat expectations, but it could be like the last time we saw a drop in employment change but also a drop in unemployment. My bias is that we will see a lower unemployment rate, and I think jobs will be added, but I also don't think it matters whether we beat expectations or not for the non-farm payroll report because a lower unemployment rate is bullish for USD.
The DXY shows investors have mixed feeling just from recent price action on the 4H. Long wicks shooting off in either direction suggest a period of consolidation until a candle can close above resistance around 92.410. Additional support is underneath in the area between 91.45 and 91.69.
USDCAD still looks bullish even after breaking under support on the 4H since price has recovered back above that level. Long wicks rejecting the lows and higher lows created on this timeframe suggest more movement to the upside. Tomorrow's volatility could send price in either direction, but heavy support on the top of the consolidation channel looks promising should price come down, but price looks like it will come back up to the top around 1.24692.
Dollar yen off to a phenomenal morning as price surges 0.39% on the day. The yen is now looking much weaker than the dollar due to the rebounding US economy. A highly anticipated NFP report tomorrow has brought significant attention to the dollar and everyone expects good news. New support lies around 111.133.
This morning at 8:30 am Eastern Time, the United States’ Bureau of Economic Analysis released even more bullish USD news. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which measures changes in prices for consumers (excluding volatile food and energy prices), rose more than expected month-over-month. A 0.5% increase was expected for August, with 0.6% […]
A strange series of events recently sent the United Kingdom’s Pound Sterling tumbling to historic lows. Just weeks after the death of Queen Elizabeth II (a head of state who was uniquely well-liked among the UK’s population by contemporary standards) Kwasi Kwarteng, Britain’s new chancellor in recently appointed Prime Minister Liz Truss’ administration, issued a […]
Last week’s selloff was brutal for investors in the US stock market: the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at its lowest level since late 2020, falling to 29590.41, losing 1.6% on Friday alone. With the S&P 500 currently down a whopping 23% from January’s highs this year, and other indexes close behind percentagewise, stock market […]
DISCLAIMER: All comments made by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC are for educational and informational purposes only. All comments should not be construed as investment advice regarding the purchase or sale of any securities or financial instrument of any kind. Please consult with your financial adviser before making an investment decision regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC assumes no responsibility for your trading and investment results. All information on any of the platforms utilized by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC, its employees, representatives, and affiliated individuals may have a position or effect transactions in the securities and financial instruments herein and or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies. Trading of any type involves very high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC, its subsidiaries and all affiliated individuals assume no responsibility for your trading and investment result. Read our full disclaimer here