Ticker tape by TradingView

November 23, 2021

XAU/USD Deep Dive: Completing The Bullish Flag?

Bart Kurek

Check out my previous Gold deep dive from early October here to see how we have progressed...

Technical Outlook:

There is an overall bullish flag pattern trend on Gold, as we saw an impulsive move from 1450 to 2075 between March and August 2020. Ever since hitting the all-time high (ATH), price has fallen into a descending channel hitting as low as 1675 three times. In May 2021, we saw a potential move back to ATH's but this was unsuccessful as price did re-enter the channel. Now, we are seeing price reach these recent highs around 1900, suggesting could be on it's way to try to successfully break through recent highs and back to ATH's above 2000+.

Looking at recent moves over the past couple of weeks, you can see price has been breaking through every short-term and long-term key horizontal level. 1765 acted as clear resistance, once broken became new support. 1800 is currently being retested as new support, just like 1765 it was clear resistance. Look out for how price reacts to this level, a break lower could suggest further bearish moves to happen and opens up price to 1765. If price rejects and pusher higher, this level is confirmed as clear support and a bullish move towards 1835 is likely.

Retail Sentiment:

Looking at retail sentiment, most traders are actually long on this pair with the majority being 74% long. This means that traders are actually looking to catch the move I just described above. Traders who trade against this concept (against retail traders) could actually see a bearish move more likely now, as institutions will likely be pushing price towards liquidity voids where traders going long will have their stop losses.

Upcoming News:

Over the next week and a half, we have many USD economic data coming out. The quarterly GDP rate is coming out expected at a 0.2% uptick from 2.0% to 2.2%. We have the PCE Price Index expecting a 0.2% uptick, and alongside these we have a couple "smaller" macroeconomic data releasing including personal income and spending figures.

Most importantly though, we're having the FOMC Meeting Minutes where we will get clues on when they plan on hiking interest rates. Recall that the Fed has already started to taper asset purchases confirming they are en route towards tightening possibly by mid-2022. However, in the recent dot plot forecast, it was indicated that half of the committee were not so eager about hiking next year yet.

Fundamental Outlooks:

Bearish Gold:

  • Hawkish Fed's comments to dampen gold
  • Dovish to hawkish Fed is bearish for gold
  • Tapering has begun
  • Gold will struggle until Fed's tightening cycle is underway
  • Increase in interest rates to push gold prices lower
  • Good NFP report is bad for gold
  • Hawkish Fed's statement is negative for gold
  • Increasing bond yields is bad for gold

Bullish Gold:

  • High inflation causes gold inquisition
  • Biden signs bill to revive infrastructure and gold
  • Metals usually bullish around end of year
  • Fed admits failure on price stability
  • Gold to shine as a safe-haven asset amid the Evergrande crisis

A1 Edgefinder

Try for FREE!
or get 20% off the full version using code "READER"
GET FREE VERSION

want to see what we're trading?

Join The VIP Community!
Our entries, exits & analysis
Live Webinar Coaching
Trading Chatrooms
Strategy Library 
Exclusive Trading Guides
Use Code "READER" for 10% OFF!
JOIN NOWJoin FREE Discord
What IPEF Could Mean for US Markets

On Monday, May 23rd, US President Joe Biden unveiled a new trade pact with twelve Indo-Pacific countries called the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF). The launching of this deal, coupled with Monday’s news that the Biden administration is considering the merits of rolling back tariffs on imports from China, saw the Dow close nearly 500 points […]

Read More
Breaking Down The SPX500 Trade

This week, I took a trade on the SPX500 that ended up being a successful one by the time it closed. We caught a 29 point move when it was all said and done, and here is the breakdown behind it. Reasons For Buying SPX500 On May 23, I sent out an alert to the […]

Read More
Why Euro Is The Biggest Winner This Week

One of the forex market's worst performers this year now has the potential to become one of the best plays in 2022. On the day, euro is up and is performing stronger against the USD than any other currency as of now. EUR/USD is up 0.36% today. Euro To "Positive Territory At The End Of […]

Read More
DISCLAIMER: All comments made by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC are for educational and informational purposes only. All comments should not be construed as investment advice regarding the purchase or sale of any securities or financial instrument of any kind. Please consult with your financial adviser before making an investment decision regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC assumes no responsibility for your trading and investment results. All information on any of the platforms utilized by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC, its employees, representatives, and affiliated individuals may have a position or effect transactions in the securities and financial instruments herein and or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies. Trading of any type involves very high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC, its subsidiaries and all affiliated individuals assume no responsibility for your trading and investment result. Read our full disclaimer here
homescreensmartphone linkedin facebook pinterest youtube rss twitter instagram facebook-blank rss-blank linkedin-blank pinterest youtube twitter instagram